000
WTPZ45 KNHC 152033
TCDEP5

HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
300 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

Convective tops have been warming very gradually around Dolores's
eye since this morning.  Satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are
T5.5/6.0, and given the infrared satellite trends, the initial
intensity is lowered slightly to 110 kt.  Dolores is moving over
very warm 29-30 degrees Celsius water, but it will soon be
traversing a tight SST gradient once it passes Socorro Island.
Thus, the hurricane only has a small window to re-intensify before
reaching colder water.  Gradual weakening is now forecast during the
next 24 hours, followed by faster weakening for the remainder of the
forecast period.  This forecast is very close to a blend of the
SHIPS and LGEM models, especially early in the forecast period, and
is lower than the previous forecasts since Dolores has not
restrengthened.

Dolores is located to the southwest of a mid-level anticyclone, and
the initial motion estimate is 290/5 kt.  A ridge is expected to
build westward from the anticyclone during the next couple of days,
which should force Dolores to turn westward by 48 hours.  After
that time, there remains a notable spread in the track guidance,
with the ECMWF, UKMET, and GFDL showing a sharper turn toward the
north and the GFS and HWRF keeping the cyclone farther south.  The
updated NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly to the right
and lies about midway between the previous forecast and the various
consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 18.7N 110.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 19.2N 111.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 19.7N 112.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 20.1N 114.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 20.3N 116.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 21.9N 119.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  19/1800Z 24.5N 122.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  20/1800Z 28.0N 124.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg