000
WTPZ45 KNHC 182031
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Radar from Acapulco, surface observations, and satellite imagery
indicate that the circulation of Trudy is becoming disrupted by the
high terrain. While no direct measure of its intensity is available,
a reasonable spin down of the peak winds suggest about 30 kt at the
advisory time.  As the center will remain inland over high terrain
for the next day or so, Trudy should become a remnant low shortly
and then dissipate.

Trudy has been moving north-northeastward at about 5 kt, though the
initial position is quite uncertain.   The low-level steering
currents become very weak and track guidance shows little
motion during the next 24 hours or so. Thus the NHC track
forecast calls for little motion until dissipation.

Given that Trudy or its remnants are forecast to remain nearly
stationary, torrential rains are expected to continue during the
next couple of days, resulting in flash flooding and mud slides in
portions of southern Mexico, especially near areas of elevated
terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 17.2N  98.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  19/0600Z 17.3N  98.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  19/1800Z 17.3N  98.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea