000
WTPZ45 KNHC 180908
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
200 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Corrected typo in sentence referring to rapid intensification

Microwave imagery and radar data from Acapulco suggest that Trudy is
intensifying. The cyclone has recently formed an inner core, and
the nascent central dense overcast (CDO) is quickly becoming better
defined. A 10 to 15 n mi eye feature within the CDO has also closed
off and become more circular within the past few hours as seen on
radar imagery. Dvorak intensity estimates are generally increasing,
and the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt, slightly above the
latest UW-CIMSS ADT CI value. Trudy is embedded in a very moist and
light-shear environment over 30 deg C waters, all of which favor
continued intensification.  In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a
nearly 70 percent likelihood of a 30-kt increase in intensity
during the next 24 hours. The only inhibiting factor is the
cyclone's proximity to land, which would end the current
intensification phase.  Given the current trend, the NHC intensity
forecast is increased significantly over the previous one and is
much higher than all of the available intensity guidance. A major
caveat to the forecast is that the predicted intensity could be too
low should the cyclone remain offshore longer than anticipated.

Radar imagery shows that Trudy has been drifting slowly eastward,
with a rather uncertain initial motion estimate of 080/02. The
synoptic pattern suggests that Trudy should generally be steered
very slowly toward the northeast or east around the northern
periphery of a mid-level ridge located well to the southeast during
the next day or so. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the
east of the previous one and is farther east than the HWRF and GFS
ensemble mean on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, with
landfall predicted in roughly 12 hours.

Based on the revised track and intensity forecast, the government of
Mexico has issued a hurricane watch from east of Acapulco to Laguna
de Chacahua.

It is worth emphasizing that the primary threat from this system is
will be the torrential rains, which will likely produce flash
flooding and mud slides in portions of southern Mexico during the
next few days, especially near areas of elevated terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 16.2N  98.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 16.4N  98.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 24H  19/0600Z 16.5N  98.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  19/1800Z 16.6N  98.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain