000
WTPZ45 KNHC 172052
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

The tropical disturbance south of Mexico has developed deep
convection organized in rainbands today.  Correspondingly, the
subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB have come in at
1.5 and 2.0, respectively. Additionally, ship and ASCAT
scatterometer observations suggest that a well-defined closed
circulation has formed.  Thus the system is being started as
a tropical cyclone in this advisory. The two ASCAT passes this
afternoon suggest peak winds of 30-35 kt, though these are along the
edge of the swath and may not be reliable.  Finally, a couple of
ships at 18Z indicated winds of 30-35 kt.  This relative bounty of
observations indicates an intensity of 30 kt, though this may be
somewhat conservative.

The tropical depression appears to be in an environment conducive
for further intensification in the short term, as water temperatures
are near 30C, vertical shear is very weak, and the atmosphere is
quite moist in the low levels and supportive of deep convection.
Intensification is shown, quite similar to a blend of the SHIPS
statistical model and the GFDL and HWRF dynamical models.  A 48 hr
point is shown for continuity, but the system is unlikely to exist
that long as a tropical cyclone over the high terrain of Mexico.  An
alternative scenario - supported by the ECMWF and GFDL models - is
that the cyclone reaches the coast, but does not press inland,
meandering just offshore as a tropical cyclone for a longer time
than indicated here.

The location and motion of the cyclone's center have substantial
uncertainty, though it appears to be moving toward the north at
about 7 kt.  The tropical depression is being steered primarily due
to the interaction of deep-layer southwesterlies equatorward of the
cyclone with a weak ridge to its northeast.  The system should slow
its forward speed during the next couple days as the steering flow
weakens.  The NHC forecast track is based upon the TVCE multi-model
ensemble.

The primary threat from this system is expected to be heavy
rainfall that will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides in
portions of southern Mexico during the next few days, especially
near areas of elevated terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 15.4N  99.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 16.1N  99.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 16.7N  99.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 36H  19/0600Z 17.2N  99.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  19/1800Z 17.5N  99.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 72H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea