000 WTPZ45 KNHC 132045 TCDEP5 HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 Odile is continuing to intensify this afternoon with visible satellite pictures showing an intermittent eye. The latest intensity estimates are between 77-84 kt, and 80 kt is chosen as the initial wind speed. With the hurricane moving over very warm waters within light shear for the next day or so, steady or rapid intensification seems likely. Despite the seemingly favorable environment, it is peculiar that none of the deterministic guidance brings Odile to a major hurricane. However, the SHIPS rapid intensification index shows about a 50/50 shot of Odile having a 30 kt increase in wind speed during the next 24 hours. After considering the environment and the SHIPS-RI guidance, the latest NHC forecast is above all of the objective guidance during the first 24 hours, and could still be too low. After that time, Odile is forecast to weaken by late Monday since it is forecast to pass near the cold wake of Norbert, with cooler waters also expected after that time. The NHC forecast philosophy is the same as the previous one, using a blend of the previous interpolated NHC prediction and the intensity consensus. After moving erratically earlier today, Odile appears to be moving more steadily to the northwest at about 5 kt. The hurricane should accelerate northwestward by late today due to a ridge strengthening over the southern United States. Guidance has shifted toward the northeast, closer to Baja California Sur, with generally less ridging predicted over northwestern Mexico. The new forecast is adjusted in that direction, roughly 30 n mi to the north of the previous forecast during Odile's closest approach to Baja California Sur, and is close to a blend of the dynamical model consensus and the ECMWF model. The long-term forecast is also adjusted eastward closer to Baja California, reflecting the latest consensus aids. A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning has been issued for portions of Baja California Sur. A hurricane warning could be issued later tonight or early tomorrow if the northward trends in the model guidance continue. Moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United States for early next week. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in those areas. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 17.0N 106.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 18.0N 107.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 19.8N 108.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 21.6N 110.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 25.0N 114.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 27.0N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 28.0N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake