000
WTPZ45 KNHC 130848
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

The satellite presentation of Odile has changed quickly during the
past few hours, and the convective pattern now consists of a CDO
pattern with the center underneath the convective canopy. Satellite
classifications from TAFB and SAB were both T4.0/65 kt at 06Z, and
on this basis Odile is upgraded to a hurricane for this advisory.
Given that the shear has decreased and the cyclone is situated over
SSTs of around 29C, conditions are favorable for at least steady
intensification. In fact, the SHIPS model indicates a 57 percent
chance of a 25-kt increase in the next 24 hours. However, most
of the intensity guidance is less aggressive. Also, a TRMM pass
around 04Z suggested that the low-level center was displaced a
little to the west of the mid-level center, suggesting that the
inner core of Odile may not be aligned. The NHC intensity forecast
has been adjusted upward in the short term to account for the
observed intensification, but still shows a peak at 90 kt in 48
hours. After that time, the cyclone will be moving over cooler
waters and weakening is forecast. The NHC forecast is near the high
end of the intensity guidance and is close to the SHIPS model and
the FSU Superensemble.

The initial motion estimate is 315/04. Odile should accelerate
northwestward today as a mid-level ridge amplifies to the northeast
of the cyclone. However, significant spread develops in the model
guidance after 24 hours, with the latest ECMWF, UKMET, and GFDL
solutions show a track farther to the right, closer to or over
portions of Baja California. The GFS, GEFS ensemble mean and
HWRF are on the left side of the guidance envelope with a track
well west of Baja California. These differences appear to be due to
variability in the western extent of the subtropical ridge north of
Odile and how fast a mid-latitude trough approaches the U.S. West
Coast late in the period. The ECMWF model has shifted sharply to the
right this cycle, with a more progressive trough turning Odile
toward the north-northwest late in the period. The new NHC track
forecast is an update of the previous one through 48 hours, and is a
little to the right of the previous track after that time, close to
the TVCE consensus and the FSU Superensemble. Given the spread in
the guidance, confidence in the details of the track forecast,
including the potential threat to Baja California, is below normal.

A tropical storm watch has been issued for the southern part of the
Baja California peninsula. Additional watches and/or warnings could
be needed for portions of Baja California later today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 16.4N 105.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 16.8N 106.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 18.0N 107.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 19.6N 109.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 21.3N 110.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  16/0600Z 23.8N 113.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  17/0600Z 26.0N 116.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  18/0600Z 27.0N 117.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan