000
WTPZ45 KNHC 122034
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014

Conventional satellite imagery indicates that the northerly shear
has shifted westward in tandem with the upper-level low over
central Mexico, and is impeding the entire western portion of
Odile.  TAFB and SAB current intensity estimates are 45 and 65 kt
respectively, and the objective ADT intensity estimate is 57 kt.  As
a compromise, the initial intensity remains at 55 kt.  The
upper-level low over central Mexico is weakening and slowly lifting
northwestward which should allow the cyclone to be in a more
conducive environment with a more diffluent pattern aloft
and decreased shear.  Therefore, strengthening is expected during
the next 48 hours or so.  Beyond that time, Odile will be traversing
cooler sea surface temperatures, which should induce a steady
weakening trend.  The intensity forecast is an update of this
morning's advisory and is near the SHIPS statistical/dynamical
model.

Odile has temporarily halted, but the 12-hour averaged motion is a
westward drift at 2 kt.  A mid-level ridge is forecast to build over
northern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next
several days, which is expected to cause Odile to accelerate
northwestward through day 5.  The dynamical guidance remains
relatively unchanged on this forecast synoptic pattern, and the new
official forecast is basically an update of the previous package.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 15.6N 104.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 15.7N 105.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 16.4N 106.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 17.5N 107.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 19.3N 109.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  15/1800Z 22.4N 112.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  16/1800Z 24.0N 115.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  17/1800Z 25.0N 117.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts