000
WTPZ45 KNHC 121439
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014

A recent SSMIS microwave overpass and Dvorak infrared BD-curve
enhancement imagery show that deep convection, with associated -80C
degree cloud tops, continues to form over the surface center,
indicative of the subsiding northeasterly shear. A blend of the
subjective intensity estimates yields an increased initial intensity
of 55 kt.  It's worth noting that the SHIPS model indicates an
initial vertical shear of 17 kt, while the UW-CIMSS shear analysis
only shows only about 5-10 kt of shear. Additionally, GOES-13
satellite-derived 100-350 mb winds indicate a more diffluent
pattern over the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is basically an
update with only a slight increase adjustment through 48 hours to
reflect the increasingly more favorable upper-level wind
environment.

Odile continues to drift westward this morning within weak mid-level
steering flow.  Large-scale models continue to be in excellent
agreement with a mid-level ridge building over northern Mexico and
the Baja California peninsula beyond the 24 hour period.  Odile is
expected to gradually accelerate northwestward through the remaining
portion of the forecast in response to this change in the synoptic
steering pattern.  The NHC official forecast is very close to the
previous advisory and is based on a blend of the TVCE multi-model
consensus with emphasis on the ECMWF global model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 15.5N 105.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 15.6N 105.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 16.0N 106.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 16.9N 107.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 18.5N 109.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  15/1200Z 21.6N 113.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  16/1200Z 23.8N 115.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 25.0N 117.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts