000
WTPZ45 KNHC 120251
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014

Strong northeasterly shear continues to push nearly all of Odile's
deep convection to the southwest of its center.  The cyclone
actually appears a little less organized than it did earlier today,
and Dvorak final-T numbers have decreased from both TAFB and SAB.
For now, however, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt based on
an average of the CI numbers.  The northeasterly shear over Odile
is being caused by the flow on the west side of an upper-level low
located over eastern Mexico.  This feature is forecast to move
westward, which should cause the shear over Odile to finally
decrease in about 24 hours.  Gradual strengthening is still forecast
during that time, but lower shear should support a faster rate of
intensification after 24 hours.  The current shear has decreased
the amount of time that Odile has for significant strengthening,
and the intensity models have responded by showing much lower peak
intensities in a few days.  The updated NHC forecast has been
adjusted downward for the entire forecast period and is near the
SHIPS model solution, which is the highest of the reliable guidance.

Odile has been meandering during the past few hours, and the
estimated 12-hour average motion is 295/2 kt.  The sheared nature
of the cyclone could cause the center to continue meandering, but
overall Odile should drift westward or northwestward during the
next 24 hours.  After that time, a strengthening mid-level ridge
over Mexico is expected to cause the storm to accelerate
northwestward through day 5.  The track models have changed little
on this scenario, and the new NHC track forecast is mainly an update
of the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 15.5N 104.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 15.5N 105.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 15.8N 105.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 16.4N 106.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 17.5N 107.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  15/0000Z 20.4N 111.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  16/0000Z 23.0N 115.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  17/0000Z 24.5N 118.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg