000 WTPZ45 KNHC 112036 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 Conventional satellite imagery shows a sheared tropical storm with the center of circulation just beneath the northeastern edge of the deep convective cloud canopy. Although the shear appears to have increased a bit this afternoon, convective spiral banding features have become better organized, and a blend of the latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates reflect this overall improvement. Subsequently, the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt. The intensity forecast remains unchanged for this advisory with the northeasterly shear relaxing in 24-36 hours. Through the remaining portion of the forecast, the global models and the SHIPS intensity model indicate an upper-wind environment conducive for strengthening through day 5. The official intensity forecast shows this intensification trend with Odile becoming a major hurricane in 3 days. The initial motion is slightly left of the previous track and is estimated to be toward the west-southwest or 255/02. This general motion, although somewhat erratic, should continue during the next 12-24 hours at which time Odile should begin a northwestward motion in response to a mid-level ridge building to the northeast of the cyclone. Odile is forecast to maintain this northwestward track with a gradual increase in forward speed through the remainder of the forecast period. The official NHC forecast is again shifted a bit to the left of the previous forecast track and splits between the TVCE and GFEX dynamical consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 15.1N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 15.1N 104.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 15.3N 105.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 15.7N 105.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 16.6N 106.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 19.4N 110.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 22.2N 113.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 24.0N 117.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts