000
WTPZ45 KNHC 110240
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 PM PDT WED SEP 10 2014

Odile's low-level center remains exposed on the northeastern edge
of the deep convection due to about 15 kt of north-northeasterly
shear.  The Dvorak satellite estimate from TAFB is still 45 kt,
while the estimate from SAB has increased to 35 kt, so the initial
intensity is raised to 40 kt.  The vertical shear is expected to
gradually abate during the next 24 or so, which should allow Odile
to steadily strengthen.  After that time, low shear and very warm
waters should support a faster rate of intensification, and Odile
is forecast to become a hurricane in about 36 hours.  The SHIPS
model is still the most aggressive intensity model, showing Odile
reaching major hurricane status by day 3.  The NHC intensity
forecast is very close to an average of the SHIPS and LGEM models
and is only a little higher than the previous forecast at days 3
and 4.

Odile is slowing down in weak steering flow, and the initial motion
estimate is 310/3 kt.  The cyclone is expected to remain in
this environment for another 48 hours and will likely meander or
drift generally west-northwestward during this time.  By day 3, a
mid-level high over the northern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to
expand westward over Mexico and cause Odile to accelerate toward
the northwest through the end of the forecast period.  The track
guidance has again shifted westward on this cycle, and now all of
the models, except for the GFDL, bring the center of Odile west of
the Baja California peninsula on days 4 and 5.  The updated NHC
track forecast lies to the west of the previous forecast and the
model consensus TVCE, especially after 48 hours.  However, the most
reliable global models, the GFS and ECMWF, are even farther west,
and additional adjustments to the NHC forecast may be required on
future advisories.

Even though the forecast track has shifted a little further away
from the Mexican coast, there is a lot of uncertainty about how big
Odile's wind field will get in a couple of days.  Most of the
guidance shows a significant increase in the 34-kt wind radii, and
on this basis, the Government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm
watch for the southwestern coast of Mexico from Lazaro Cardenas to
Manzanillo.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 15.5N 103.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 15.6N 103.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 15.6N 104.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 15.7N 104.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 16.2N 104.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  14/0000Z 18.0N 106.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  15/0000Z 21.0N 110.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  16/0000Z 24.0N 113.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg