000
WTPZ45 KNHC 051434
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014

Microwave imagery indicates that the center of Julio is located on
the northern edge of the convective canopy, consistent with 10 kt or
so of northeasterly shear analyzed over the cyclone by UW-CIMSS
satellite analyses and the SHIPS model. The initial intensity
remains 50 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak classifications
from TAFB and SAB. Conditions should support gradual strengthening
during the next 2 to 3 days, and the NHC forecast shows Julio
becoming a hurricane in about 24 hours. By day 4, the cyclone will
be moving over more marginal SSTs around 26C, but then back over
warmer water by day 5. Given that the shear remains relatively low
late in the period, only a little weakening is shown by day 4 with
the intensity leveling off afterward. The NHC forecast is a little
above the IVCN intensity consensus through the period.

Microwave and geostationary satellite fixes suggest that the center
is located a little to the north of previous estimates, providing an
initial motion estimate of 275/11. The track forecast reasoning
remains unchanged, as Julio will be steered generally westward
through 96 hours by a mid-level ridge to the north. By day 5, the
cyclone will be approaching the western edge of the ridge, which
should result in a turn toward the west-northwest. The combination
of the more northward initial position and a northward shift in the
guidance results in the NHC track forecast being nudged northward a
bit. The official forecast close to a blend of the ECMWF and GFS
models on the south side of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 14.0N 124.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 14.4N 126.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 15.1N 129.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 15.7N 132.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 16.1N 135.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 17.0N 141.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 18.0N 147.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 20.0N 152.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan