000
WTPZ45 KNHC 050855
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014

Enhanced BD-curve and shortwave infrared imagery reveal little
change in the overall cloud pattern of Julio this morning.  A
partial ASCAT-B scatterometer pass caught the west side of the
cyclone and indicated that the winds over the area have actually
decreased a bit from yesterday's overpass.  Evidently, the 10-15 kt
of northeasterly shear continues to impede intensification of the
cyclone.  Satellite intensity estimates are the same as 6 hours ago,
so the initial intensity remains at 50 kt for this advisory.  The
statistical/dynamical guidance, however, still indicates
strengthening through 48 to 60 hours, and both the SHIPS and the
Florida State Superensemble (FSSE) show a maximum intensity of 80 kt
at that time.  Late in the forecast period, Julio is expected to
traverse a rather steep sea surface temperature gradient and
encounter a more dry and stable air mass intruding from the
mid-latitudes of the central Pacific.  Both negative contributions
should promote a weakening trend.  The official intensity forecast
follows suit, and is based on a blend of the higher SHIPS and FSSE
guidance, which is slightly above the IVCN model.

A timely 0523 UTC AMSU MHS microwave image was quite helpful in
pinpointing the center of circulation.  Julio's initial motion is
estimated to be 275/13 kt, within the mid-level easterly flow
produced by a mid-tropospheric ridge to the north.  This east-to-
west oriented ridge is expected to influence a generally westward
heading for the next 3 days.  For the remainder of the forecast
period, global models show a mid-latitude shortwave trough
approaching from northwest of the Big Island of Hawaii and eroding
the western extent of the ridge.  The weakening of the ridge is
expected to cause Julio to turn toward west-northwestward through
day 5.  The NHC forecast is again adjusted slightly to the right,
and is very close to the TVCE multi-model consensus and the FSSE
corrected consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 13.6N 123.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 13.9N 125.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 14.6N 128.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 15.1N 131.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 15.7N 134.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 16.4N 140.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z 17.0N 146.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  10/0600Z 19.0N 152.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts