000
WTPZ45 KNHC 042054
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014
200 PM PDT MON AUG 04 2014

Tropical Storm Julio has become substantially better organized
during the past several hours.  Dvorak intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB have increased and now support an initial intensity of
50 kt.  A band of deep convection is beginning to wrap most of the
way around the circulation, and a 1730 UTC ASCAT pass shows that the
low- and mid-level centers are now close to being vertically
aligned.

Julio has accelerated and the initial motion estimate is now
270/14.  A continued westward motion is expected for the next 5
days while the tropical cyclone moves along the southern periphery
of a strong ridge over the eastern Pacific.  There has been no
significant change in the model guidance for this forecast cycle,
and the official forecast now lies very near the multi-model
consensus.

The intensity forecast presents a larger challenge, and several of
the models now predict more intensification.  DSHP, LGEM, and the
HWRF all suggest that Julio will become a hurricane by tomorrow
afternoon, which seems reasonable given the recent vertical
alignment of the vortex.  After that, there is considerable
uncertainty as to how much additional strengthening will occur, with
DSHP forecasting a 100-kt major hurricane, and GHMI peaking at 70
kt.  The official forecast splits these scenarios and peaks at 85
kt, near the intensity consensus.  Late in the forecast period,
Julio is forecast to pass over cooler SSTs which should lead to
weakening.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 13.5N 121.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 13.4N 123.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 13.7N 125.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 14.1N 128.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 14.6N 131.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 15.4N 136.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 16.0N 142.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 17.0N 149.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Berg