000
WTPZ45 KNHC 041440
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014
800 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014

Julio remains sharply sheared from the northeast, and deep
convection is limited to the western half of the circulation. A
blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS supports
holding the initial intensity at 40 kt.  The global dynamical
guidance suggests that moderate northwesterly shear will continue
for at least the next 24 to 36 hours, which should limit the rate
at which the tropical cyclone can strengthen.  After that, the
environment is forecast to become more favorable, and the members of
IVCN unanimously indicate that Julio will become a hurricane within
72 hours.  By days 4 and 5, the intensity is expected to level off
while the cyclone encounters cooler SSTs due to a combination of the
sharp SST gradient to the northwest, and a possible cold wake from
Hurricane Iselle.

The initial motion remains 270/11.  The track forecast reasoning is
unchanged and Julio is still expected to be steered generally
west-northwestward by a strong ridge over the eastern Pacific.  A
slightly more northward component to the motion is expected later
in the forecast period while Julio encounters a slight weakness in
the mid-level ridge.  The track guidance has shifted north again so
the NHC track forecast has been nudged northward accordingly.
However, it remains slightly south of the model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 13.5N 119.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 13.3N 121.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 13.4N 124.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 13.7N 126.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 14.1N 129.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 15.0N 134.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 15.7N 140.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 16.5N 146.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Berg