000
WTPZ45 KNHC 040247
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
several hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, have become
more concentrated this afternoon and evening.  The deep convection
has also become better organized, taking on the form of a band with
increasing curvature over the western half of the circulation.
Dvorak intensity estimates are at T2.0/30 kt and T2.5/35 kt from SAB
and TAFB, respectively.  Based on these data, advisories are being
initiated at this time, and the initial intensity of the depression
is set at 30 kt.

Some scatter in center fixes over the last 24 hours has made the
initial motion more uncertain than normal, but an estimate of
270/09 seems reasonable.  The depression is situated to the south of
a subtropical ridge extending west-southwestward from western
Mexico that should cause the depression to move westward or perhaps
even west-southwestward during the next day or two at a faster
forward speed. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone will become
caught under the eastern end of a subtropical ridge forming over the
central Pacific, with an orientation of the ridge such that a
west-northwestward heading should commence.  This first NHC track
forecast is close to the multi-model consensus TVCE and near but
slightly south of the ECMWF/GFS solutions.

Persistent moderate northeasterly shear has been affecting the
system for a couple of days now, and according to SHIPS model output
only a marginal decrease in this shear is likely during the next 3
days.  Still the cyclone will be over warm waters and encountering
an environment of higher moisture, so steady intensification is
expected.  Although sea surface temperatures will be gradually
decreasing after day 3, the shear should nearly diminish and
thermodynamic factors are expected to still be favorable enough to
allow for some additional strengthening or in the very least a
steady state cyclone.  One caveat to intensity forecast late in the
period could be the effect of the cold wake left behind by Hurricane
Iselle.  The intensity forecast is close to the multi-model
consensus IVCN throughout the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 13.5N 116.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 13.3N 118.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 13.1N 121.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 13.0N 123.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 13.1N 126.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 13.8N 131.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 14.5N 136.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 15.0N 142.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain