000
WTPZ45 KNHC 012036
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052014
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014

Strong northwesterly wind shear persists over Elida, and the
cyclone has become a tight swirl of low clouds devoid of deep
convection. Satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, and
on this basis, the initial intensity has been lowered to 35 knots.
These winds are probably confined to a small area to the north and
east of the center. Global models indicate that the shear will
continue and, in fact, most of them weaken Elida to a low or a
trough in a few days. The NHC forecast is along the line of such
models.

Elida continues to be trapped in very weak steering currents, and
it has been drifting southeastward during the past several hours.
The steering flow is forecast by global models to remain weak during
the next day or two, and little motion is anticipated during that
period. A ridge is forecast to develop over Mexico beyond 3 days,
and this pattern should force Elida or its remnants to begin moving
slowly westward away from Mexico. This is consistent with the
multi-model consensus trend.

The government of Mexico has discontinued the tropical storm
warning, however, a few strong squalls could still affect the
coast during the next 12 to 24 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 17.2N 103.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 17.0N 103.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 16.8N 103.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 16.9N 104.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 17.0N 104.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 17.0N 106.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1800Z 17.0N 108.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1800Z 17.0N 111.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila