000
WTPZ45 KNHC 011435
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052014
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014

Strong northwesterly wind shear continues over Elida, and
satellite imagery indicates that the low-level center is located on
the northern edge of the deep convection. Since the cloud pattern
has lost some organization since yesterday, the Dvorak T-numbers
suggest a weaker cyclone. The initial intensity has thus been
lowered to 40 knots at this time. The shear over Elida is forecast
to continue during the next couple of days, and consequently, no
significant change in intensity is anticipated. Elida could
re-strengthen a little when the shear relaxes beyond 72 hours. The
official forecast is consistent with the intensity guidance which
shows no important change in strength in 5 days.

Elida is trapped in very weak steering currents, and it has barely
moved during the past several hours. The steering flow is forecast
by global models to remain weak during the next day or two, and
little motion is anticipated during that period. A ridge is forecast
to develop over Mexico beyond 3 days, and this pattern should force
Elida to begin slowly westward away from Mexico. This is consistent
with the multi-model consensus trend.

Given the new NHC forecast, the government of Mexico has
adjusted the area of the tropical storm warning, and if Elida
continues to weaken as it moves away from the coast, the tropical
storm warning would likely be discontinued later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 17.4N 104.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 17.3N 104.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 17.1N 104.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 17.0N 104.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 17.0N 104.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 17.0N 106.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 17.0N 108.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 17.0N 111.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila