000
WTPZ45 KNHC 010244
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052014
800 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014

Overall, the organization of the tropical cyclone has changed little
during the past 6 to 12 hours.  The center briefly became exposed to
the northwest of the main convective mass this afternoon due to
moderate to strong northwesterly shear.  Since that time, a new
burst of deep convection with very cold cloud tops has developed
near and over the the center.  The intitial intensity remains 45
kt, which is in agreement with a Dvorak T-number of 3.0 from TAFB
and the earlier ASCAT data.

Recent microwave images show that Elida has slowed down considerably
today, and the initial motion estimate is 290/2 kt.  The global
model guidance indicates that Elida will remain within an area of
weak steering currents during the next couple of days. During this
time, the tropical storm is expected to meander just offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico. After that, a mid- to upper-level
ridge is forecast to build to the north of the cyclone, which should
cause Elida to move westward at a faster forward speed.  The updated
NHC track forecast is similar to, but a little slower than the
previous forecast during the first few days.

Little change in strength is expected during the next two to
three days while Elida remains within an area of moderate to
strong northwesterly shear.  After Elida begins moving westward
later in the period, the cyclone is forecast to move into an area
of lower vertical wind shear, which could allow for some slight
intensification.  The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the
previous forecast and is in good agreement with a blend of the SHIPS
and LGEM guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 17.4N 104.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 17.5N 104.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 17.5N 104.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 17.4N 104.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 17.3N 104.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 17.1N 105.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 17.0N 107.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 17.2N 110.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown