000
WTPZ45 KNHC 301458
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052014
800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014

Conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that the low
pressure area offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico has
become better organized overnight.  First-light visible imagery
shows a partially exposed low-level center of circulation on the
northwestern edge of a deep convective cloud mass due to strong
northwesterly vertical wind shear.  In addition, ship A8ER9, the Zim
Savannah, reported 50-knot winds somewhat above 10 meters at 0900
UTC in the northwestern quadrant, and then reported 42 kt at 1200
UTC in the southeastern quadrant after it passed through the center.
Based primarily on the aforementioned ship data, the initial
intensity estimate is set at 45 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 310/10.  Elida should move
northwestward today, parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico,
in response to a weakness in the subtropical ridge extending
southwestward from the Gulf of Mexico. However, the forward motion
of the storm should markedly decrease after that once the cyclone
reaches a col area, with a west-southwestward or southwestward drift
shown by global models in a day or two. The subtropical ridge is
forecast to rebuild to the north of Elida later in the forecast
period, which should allow for Elida to move westward away from the
coast at a faster forward speed.  The NHC track forecast is close to
the multi-model consensus TVCE but not as fast as the ECMWF by day
5.

Although the sea surface temperatures are very high along the track
of Elida, strong upper-level northwesterly winds associated with an
upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico should inhibit
significant intensification during the next few days.  After about
72 hours, the shear is forecast to decrease, but by then the cyclone
should be embedded in a somewhat drier and more stable
environment. The NHC intensity forecast is near the multi-model
consensus IVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 17.3N 103.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 17.9N 104.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 18.2N 104.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 18.1N 104.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 17.9N 105.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 17.8N 105.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 17.6N 106.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 17.6N 109.3W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain