000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150235
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152013
800 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013
 
RECENT GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER OF OCTAVE IS DECOUPLING FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO
STRONG SHEAR AND COOL WATERS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 35 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DVORAK FINAL-T AND
CI-NUMBERS FROM SAB. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER
INTERACTS WITH LAND AND THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY 12 HOURS...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 24
HOURS. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS...BUT COULD OCCUR SOONER.
 
SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF OCTAVE IS A LITTLE EAST
OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 025/10. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD STEER THE
CYCLONE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE CENTER REACHES
LAND...WITH LITTLE OR NO MOTION EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME AS THE
CIRCULATION WEAKENS OVER THE TERRAIN OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS AGAIN TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS CLOSE TO
THE SHALLOW BAM THROUGH LANDFALL.
 
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OCTAVE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. INTERESTS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 25.1N 112.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 25.9N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  16/0000Z 26.1N 111.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/1200Z 26.3N 111.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN