000
WTPZ45 KNHC 142046
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152013
200 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 015/08 KT. OCTAVE HAS MADE THE
ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS OCTAVE
COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT ONCE AGAIN...AND LIES
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND ARE NOW A
CONSENSUS T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. TWO PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES
ONLY CAUGHT THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND SHOWED 40-KT WIND SPEEDS IN
THAT PART OF THE CIRCULATION. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KT. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SUB-24C
SSTS AND SHARPLY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR OF MORE THAN
30 KT BY 12 HOURS. SOME OROGRAPHIC FORCING IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE APPEARS TO HAVE HELP MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR THAT HAS BEEN FEEDING THE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE
CENTER. HOWEVER...THAT FAVORABLE CONNECTION SHOULD CEASE BY 24
HOURS...IF NOT SOONER...WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT A RAPID DEMISE OF
THE CYCLONE...AND OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW BY 36 HOURS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
IF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT OBSERVED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...STRONGER WINDS COULD STILL OCCUR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
 
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OCTAVE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THEREFORE...INTERESTS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED
BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/2100Z 24.1N 113.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 25.1N 112.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 25.8N 112.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 26.2N 112.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/1800Z 26.0N 112.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART