000
WTPZ45 KNHC 292047
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102013
200 PM PDT THU AUG 29 2013
 
THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE HAS CONTINUED
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.  BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF 
THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 30 KT.  THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS WEST 
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE CYCLONE 
SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JULIETTE HAS DECELERATED AS
ANTICIPATED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/14 KT.  THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE MODELS
REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 26.1N 113.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 27.2N 115.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/1800Z 28.2N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  31/0600Z 28.8N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN