000
WTPZ45 KNHC 282013
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102013
200 PM PDT WED AUG 28 2013
 
A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.  THE INSTRUMENT MEASURED A SMALL AREA OF
40 KT WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY
ASSIGNED TO THE CYCLONE.  CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS INCREASED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA...THE
SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.  JULIETTE IS A VERY SMALL
CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUT ONLY 30 TO 40
N MI EAST OF THE CENTER.  THE TROPICAL STORM DOES NOT HAVE MUCH
TIME IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA AND REACHES COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS
WEST OF THE PENINSULA.  AS A RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH STEADY WEAKENING EXPECTED THERAFTER.  THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...IF NOT
SOONER.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH
SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AS THE
CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES SHALLOWER...IT SHOULD TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE EVEN MORE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 21.5N 108.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 23.8N 110.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 25.6N 113.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 26.2N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 26.8N 117.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN