000
WTPZ45 KNHC 090253
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
800 PM PDT MON JUL 08 2013
 
LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 2239 UTC SSM/I IMAGE
SHOWED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERICK TO BE PARTIALLY EXPOSED...WITH
DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. A BLEND OF
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 35
KT AT 0000 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH ERICK HAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHED...AND ERICK IS
DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT DEPRESSION ON THIS BASIS. STEADY
WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE SINCE ERICK IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE
INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND ENTER AND AN EVEN MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS FORECAST WITHIN 24 HOURS...IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
 
THE CENTER OF ERICK IS GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/09.
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER
ERICK ON A SIMILAR HEADING AND FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHALLOW CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE
WESTERLY AND DECELERATE PRIOR TO DISSIPATION.  THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 23.2N 111.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 24.1N 112.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 25.1N 114.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  10/1200Z 25.7N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/0000Z 26.0N 117.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN