000
WTPZ45 KNHC 082036
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
200 PM PDT MON JUL 08 2013
 
ERICK HAS TAKEN ON A SHEARED APPEARANCE...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
HAS BECOME EXPOSED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE NOT CHANGED...AND A
1730Z ASCAT PASS ALSO SUPPORTS HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40
KT. THE APPARENT DECOUPLING OF THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS IS
LIKELY THE RESULT OF SUB-24C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH
ERICK...AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR BEING WRAPPED INTO ITS CIRCULATION.
THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...AND ERICK IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

ERICK HAS PROBABLY MADE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA COAST AND THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS 310/9. A RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON
THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CAUSE THE REMNANT LOW TO MAKE A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND HAS NOT
CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 22.6N 110.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 23.6N 112.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 24.7N 113.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 25.4N 115.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  10/1800Z 25.7N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY