000
WTPZ45 KNHC 081443
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
800 AM PDT MON JUL 08 2013
 
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE GENERAL STRUCTURE OF ERICK HAS
NOT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER
THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE DECREASED...AND AN 0502 ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT WINDS NEAR
THE CENTER ARE PROBABLY NO GREATER THAN 40 KT. BASED ON ALL OF
THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 40
KT. ERICK IS TRAVERSING OVER A SHARP GRADIENT IN SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE...AND THE WATER TEMPERATURE CURRENTLY BENEATH THE
CYCLONE IS LESS THAN 25C. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE
TROPICAL STORM MOVES OVER EVEN COLDER WATERS...AND INTO A DRIER AND
MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST
STILL INDICATES THAT ERICK WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS.
 
FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE 0502 ASCAT PASS SHOW THAT THE
CENTER OF ERICK IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED...HOWEVER THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY
UNCHANGED. ERICK IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THE REMNANTS WILL BE STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. BASED ON THE NEW INITIAL POSITION...THE NHC FORECAST
HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH...BUT IS OTHERWISE JUST AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 22.2N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 23.2N 111.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 24.3N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 25.1N 114.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  10/1200Z 25.6N 116.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/1200Z 26.0N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY