000
WTPZ45 KNHC 051452
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013
 
ERICK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.  SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS FORMED...WITH TIGHT BANDING IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOW THAT SOME INNER
CORE FEATURES HAVE FORMED WITH PERHAPS THE START OF AN EYEWALL ON
THE SOUTH SIDE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT... A BIT
BELOW THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS DUE TO THE SUGGESTION FROM
OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA THAT THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE COULD BE
LEADING THE INTENSITY CHANGE.
 
CONDITIONS LOOK RIPE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING WITH CONSIDERABLY
LESS SHEAR FORECAST THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 24H FOLLOWS THE TREND
OF THE SHIPS/LGEM/FSSE MODELS AND IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.
GIVEN THE RECENT SATELLITE TREND...THIS FORECAST COULD BE TOO
CONSERVATIVE. AFTER THAT TIME...ERICK IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY
CLOSE TO SOME COOLER WATERS THAT DALILA UPWELLED A FEW DAYS
AGO...AND THEN EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS MUCH COOLER WATERS FROM THE
TYPICAL NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC COLD TONGUE. THUS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS LEVELLED OFF AFTER 24H AND THEN STARTS A MORE RAPID
DECLINE...SIMILAR TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...300/9.  GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ENOUGH RIDGING WILL STAY OVER
MEXICO TO KEEP THE STORM MOVING ON ABOUT THE SAME PATH FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH
THE FIRST 48H...KEEPING THE CYCLONE AT LEAST 90 NMI OFFSHORE OF
MEXICO.  AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON WHETHER
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL STAY FIRM OR IF AN UPPER LOW
WILL ERODE PART OF THE RIDGE.  THE NHC FORECAST IS NUDGED NORTHWARD
TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS...ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS STILL KEEP THE STORM OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 15.8N 102.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 16.3N 103.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 17.2N 104.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 18.1N 106.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 19.1N 107.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 21.0N 111.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 22.5N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  10/1200Z 23.0N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART