000
WTPZ45 KNHC 041455
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
800 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013
 
SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH OF MEXICO NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE.   THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TAFB DVORAK
ESTIMATE AND AN EARLIER OSCAT PASS.
 
MODERATE-TO-STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH WILL PROBABLY NOT ALLOW
FOR MUCH INTENSIFICATION.  A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
AFTER THAT TIME WHEN THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX A BIT WHILE THE
SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM WATER.  ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW
THAT THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN AT LEAST MODERATE...LIKELY INHIBITING
ANY RAPID INTENSIFICATION.  THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW THE
DEPRESSION BECOMING A MID-RANGE TROPICAL STORM IN A FEW DAYS...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...A BIT HIGHER THAN THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/9.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW ENOUGH RIDGING OVER MEXICO TO KEEP THE DEPRESSION OFFSHORE. 
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN A DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE
A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT THAT TIME.  EXCEPT FOR THE THE
GFDL AND ITS ENSEMBLE...WHICH BRING THE STORM CLOSER TO MEXICO... 
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.  THE NHC
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH HAS
BEEN A TOP PERFORMER THIS SEASON.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/1500Z 13.4N  98.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 14.3N  99.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 15.3N 101.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 16.1N 102.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 16.6N 104.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 17.7N 107.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 18.9N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 19.5N 113.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE