000
WTPZ45 KNHC 090837
TCDEP5
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152012
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 09 2012
 
OLIVIA HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE
PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS MOVING FARTHER
AWAY FROM WHATEVER FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS REMAIN.  THE SYSTEM NO
LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HAS BECOME A REMNANT
LOW.  THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON CI NUMBERS OF 2.0
FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALLOWING THE CIRCULATION SOME TIME TO SPIN
DOWN.  CONTINUED SHEAR AND A STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CAUSE THE
WINDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE REMNANT LOW IS
EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

THE SHALLOW CIRCULATION IS NOW BEING STEERED SOUTHWESTWARD...OR
220/6 KT...AROUND A LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THE
REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A MORE PRONOUNCED TRADE WIND REGIME.  THE
NHC TRACK FORECAST STILL LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AND
IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0900Z 15.2N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  09/1800Z 14.8N 122.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  10/0600Z 14.2N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  10/1800Z 13.6N 125.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG