000
WTPZ45 KNHC 090243
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152012
800 PM PDT MON OCT 08 2012
 
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS CAUSED THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS
OF OLIVIA TO DECOUPLE DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS.  LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...WITH
THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION AND THE MID-LEVEL CENTER NOW LOCATED A
FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTHEAST.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
QUICKLY DECREASE...AND A BLEND OF THE T- AND CI-NUMBERS SUGGESTS AN
INTENSITY OF 30 KT.  OLIVIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY SPIN DOWN
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A RELATIVELY
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND EVEN STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR.  THE NEW NHC FORECASTS CALLS FOR OLIVIA TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW IN 12 HOURS...AND DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
SINCE THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS SEPARATED EARLIER TODAY...THE
MOTION HAS RESPONDED TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BY BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY 190/04.  NOW A SHALLOW CYCLONE...OLIVIA SHOULD BE STEERED
SOUTHWESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND LIES IN BETWEEN THE BETTER
PERFORMING GFS AND ECWMF MODELS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 15.7N 121.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 15.5N 121.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  10/0000Z 15.1N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  10/1200Z 14.5N 124.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/0000Z 13.8N 125.9W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN