000
WTPZ45 KNHC 082047
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152012
200 PM PDT MON OCT 08 2012
 
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON OLIVIA. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECAME EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND 1400 UTC. SINCE THEN...THE STORM HAS
DECOUPLED FURTHER...AND THE CONVECTION IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 100 N
MI AWAY FROM THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE FALLEN SHARPLY
THIS CYCLE...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 40
KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS
THE SHEAR REMAINS STRONG AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A DRIER AND 
MORE STABLE AIR MASS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND NOW CALLS FOR OLIVIA TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES...
OLIVIA COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW EVEN SOONER.
 
THE STORM HAS MOVED LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A WEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY
AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF OLIVIA
BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK... AND IS
CLOSE TO THE LATEST CONSENSUS AIDS.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 16.3N 121.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 16.4N 121.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 16.3N 122.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 16.0N 123.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  10/1800Z 15.6N 124.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/1800Z 14.7N 126.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI