000
WTPZ45 KNHC 081432
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152012
800 AM PDT MON OCT 08 2012
 
SATELLITE IMAGES AND A TRMM OVERPASS AROUND 1000 UTC INDICATE THAT
OLIVIA IS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY WERE
EARLIER...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 50 KT. GIVEN THE
CURRENT ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE OF OLIVIA...AND BECAUSE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY INCREASE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY
WEAKENING. OLIVIA WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 2 TO 3
DAYS...WHEN THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS
COMPLETELY DECOUPLED. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
THE TRMM PASS INDICATES THAT OLIVIA HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT
RECENTLY...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/3. LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE STORM REMAINS IN WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS. A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON
TUESDAY AS OLIVIA WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE INFLUENCED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE CONSENSUS
AIDS AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 16.6N 121.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 16.8N 121.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 16.8N 121.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 16.6N 122.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 16.2N 123.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 15.2N 125.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI