000
WTPZ45 KNHC 041437
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102012
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2012
 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JOHN DISSIPATED AROUND 0600 UTC
AND THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL REFORM AND
JOHN IS LIKELY TO BE DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT...AND IS BASED ON A
COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS OF AROUND 25 KT OVER THE OUTER PORTION
OF THE CIRCULATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/12.  JOHN SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/1500Z 23.5N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 24.5N 117.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  05/1200Z 25.5N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/0000Z 26.4N 120.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1200Z 27.3N 120.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1200Z 29.0N 120.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN