000 WTPZ45 KNHC 030240 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102012 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2012 MODERATELY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE DEPRESSION ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SHIPS/CIMSS UW SHEAR ANALYSES. THE CLOUD PATTERN GIVES EVIDENCE OF THIS SHEAR...WITH THE CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BAND COVERING THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.0 AT 0000 UTC...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE DEPRESSION HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS BEFORE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM AND SHOULD MOVE INTO A SHARP GRADIENT OF DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AFTER THAT TIME. SINCE THE SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD ENSUE AFTER 36 HOURS ONCE THE CYCLONE REACHES INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS...AND REMNANT LOW STATUS IS FORECAST IN 72 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE LATEST SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN RECENT CENTER FIXES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A MORE RELIABLE 300/15. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH- CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CYCLONE SHOULD ASSUME AN INCREASINGLY MORE WESTERLY HEADING AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOME SHALLOWER IN NATURE AFTER 48 HOURS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR BUT LEFT OF A BLEND OF THE TRACKS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS...BOTH OF WHICH APPEARED TO HAVE THE BEST REPRESENTATION OF THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 19.0N 110.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 20.1N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 21.4N 114.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 22.6N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 23.5N 118.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 24.8N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0000Z 25.4N 123.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN