000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150837
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012
 
VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND IS PRIMARILY OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT
OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KT BASED
ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWED A FEW 30-35 KT VECTORS OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  AS EMILIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH A
STABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO
SPIN DOWN TO A DEPRESSION AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMANANT LOW
IN 24 HOURS...OR SOONER.

EMILIA CONTINUES WESTWARD AT AROUND 14 KT.  A WESTWARD TO SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF DUE WESTWARD TRACK IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ROUGHLY IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 15.7N 136.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 15.5N 138.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 15.3N 141.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/1800Z 15.1N 143.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/0600Z 15.0N 146.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/0600Z 15.0N 152.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/0600Z 15.0N 158.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH