000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150238
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF EMILIA HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN ASCAT PASS
AROUND 1800Z SUGGESTED THAT PEAK WINDS AT THAT TIME WERE AROUND 40
KT. GIVEN THE DECAY OF THE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE THE ASCAT PASS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND
OF THE LATEST TAFB AND SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS EMILIA WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 12 HOURS AND
BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
SSTS AROUND 24C AND THROUGH A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD AT 14 KT...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT NEXT FEW DAYS AS EMILIA IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 15.7N 134.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 15.7N 136.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 15.6N 139.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/1200Z 15.5N 142.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/0000Z 15.3N 145.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/0000Z 15.0N 150.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/0000Z 15.0N 156.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN