000
WTPZ45 KNHC 142035
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012
 
THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE BEGINNING
TO BECOME DETACHED...AND MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW LOCATED
IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE VERY
TIGHT AND WINDS ARE PROBABLY STILL NEAR 45 KNOTS. IN FACT...THAT
INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. THE CYCLONE IS
SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR...AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGES...AND IS
MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR WEAKENING AND EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
 
EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVEL TROPICAL TRADE WINDS. THEREFORE...A GENERAL TRACK
TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 12 TO 14 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/2100Z 15.5N 132.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 15.5N 135.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 15.5N 137.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 15.5N 140.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/1800Z 15.2N 143.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/1800Z 15.0N 148.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/1800Z 15.0N 153.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA