000
WTPZ45 KNHC 141431
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012
 
CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED RECENTLY AS EMILIA MOVED OVER A TONGUE OF
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. EMILIA HAS NOT WEAKENED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TODAY WHILE EMILIA IS STILL INFLUENCED BY THE WARMER
WATERS.  THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE BACK OVER COOL WATERS ON SUNDAY...
AND THE EXPECTED WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME.  EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
 
EMILIA IS A SHALLOW CYCLONE WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROPICAL TRADE
WINDS. THEREFORE...A GENERAL TRACK TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 12 TO 14
KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/1500Z 15.5N 131.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 15.5N 133.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 15.5N 136.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 15.5N 139.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/1200Z 15.5N 142.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/1200Z 15.5N 147.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/1200Z 15.5N 153.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1200Z 15.5N 159.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA