000
WTPZ45 KNHC 132045
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012
 
EMILIA CONSISTS OF A VERY TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A PATCH OF
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED
TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON A DECREASE OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS. SINCE MOST OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER
COOL WATERS...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND EMILIA COULD
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY OR EVEN EARLIER. SOME INTERMITTENT
BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP BEFORE DISSIPATION.
 
BECAUSE EMILIA HAS BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE CYCLONE
WILL MOST LIKELY MOVE WESTWARD AT 12 TO 14 KNOTS...STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/2100Z 15.5N 127.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 15.6N 129.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 15.8N 132.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 15.8N 135.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  15/1800Z 15.8N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  16/1800Z 15.5N 144.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  17/1800Z 15.0N 150.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/1800Z 15.0N 155.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA