000
WTPZ45 KNHC 131431
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012
 
MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EMILIA IS GONE...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A SMALL CELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...I WILL NOT
BE SURPRISED IF ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOP INTERMITTENTLY DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS. SINCE EMILIA WAS A
STRONG HURRICANE...IT IS ASSUMED THAT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
WINDS TO SPIN DOWN...AND THE INTENSITY IS STILL ESTIMATED TO BE 55
KNOTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED...AND EMILIA IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...OR EARLIER.   

EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS STEERED
BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. NO IMPORTANT CHANGES IN TRACK OR FORWARD
SPEED ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A WEAKENING CYCLONE OR A
REMNANT LOW PROGRESSING WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/1500Z 15.6N 126.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 15.7N 127.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 16.0N 130.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 16.2N 133.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  15/1200Z 16.3N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  16/1200Z 16.5N 141.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  17/1200Z 16.5N 147.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/1200Z 16.5N 152.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA