000
WTPZ45 KNHC 130839
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012
 
EMILIA CONTINUES ITS RAPID DEMISE WITH MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  A BLEND
OF THE T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
60 KT.  PERHAPS SOME OF THE WEAKENING IS DUE TO EMILIA MOVING JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF DANIEL.  IN ANY CASE... A FURTHER
DECREASE IN WIND SPEED IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER
SSTS OF 24-25C AND FARTHER INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. 
THE NEW FORECAST BLENDS THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS WEAKEN
THIS STORM FASTER THAN FORECAST BELOW.

EMILIA HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED A LITTLE...NOW 275/12.  WITH A
STOUT RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...A
WESTWARD TRACK AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE MADE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE THE FORWARD SPEED BASED UPON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE.  THE NEW FORECAST IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...BUT STILL LAGS A FAIR DISTANCE BEHIND THE ECMWF TRACK.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0900Z 15.4N 124.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 15.6N 126.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 15.8N 129.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 16.0N 131.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 16.2N 134.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  16/0600Z 16.3N 140.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  17/0600Z 16.3N 145.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/0600Z 16.3N 150.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE