000
WTPZ45 KNHC 122039
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
200 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012
 
THE COOL WATERS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO AFFECT EMILIA. THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...AND THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT...
RESULTING IN LOWER DVORAK T-NUMBERS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 90 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ATTEMPTS FOR THE
CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP INTERMITTENTLY...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR
THE HURRICANE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EMILIA COULD BECOME
A REMNANT LOW IN FOUR DAYS OR EARLIER.

EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH...WHICH IS FORCING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD...IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED NORTH OF EMILIA. THIS PATTERN WOULD
FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH NO IMPORTANT
CHANGES IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...EMILIA WILL LIKELY BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY
THE TRADE WINDS. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/2100Z 15.1N 122.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 15.1N 124.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 15.4N 126.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 15.6N 128.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 15.9N 131.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  15/1800Z 16.0N 136.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  16/1800Z 16.0N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  17/1800Z 16.0N 145.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA