000
WTPZ45 KNHC 121439
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
800 AM PDT THU JUL 12 2012
 
EMILIA HAS CONTINUED TO FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE WINDS ARE
AGAIN 100 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE HAS A DISTINCT WARM EYE SURROUNDED
BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND NO BANDING FEATURES. THIS
ANNULAR PATTERN NORMALLY WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY
IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...COOL WATERS ARE NEARBY...AND EMILIA
SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE NORTH HAS EXPANDED AND HAS FORCED EMILIA
TO MOVE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK...270 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST OR
EVEN STRENGTHEN A LITTLE. THIS PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARD AND IS NOW ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/1500Z 15.1N 121.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 15.3N 123.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 15.5N 125.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 16.0N 128.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 16.0N 130.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  15/1200Z 16.0N 136.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  16/1200Z 16.0N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  17/1200Z 16.0N 146.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA