000
WTPZ45 KNHC 120843
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
200 AM PDT THU JUL 12 2012
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF EMILIA IS 280/11 KT. THE PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED TURN TOWARD THE WEST HAS FINALLY OCCURRED AND EMILIA
REMAINS ON TRACK. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
ON EMILIA MAINTAINING THIS SAME GENERAL MOTION THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY
PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF EMILIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT WARMING OF THE INNER CORE
CLOUD TOPS. EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATED EMILIA WAS AN
ANNULAR HURRICANE AND THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO POSSESS A
WELL-DEFINED 20 NMI DIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KT IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB. EMILIA IS NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF OF A NARROW
SEA-SURFACE THERMAL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THE CURRENT
WEAKENING PROCESS. HOWEVER...THE WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN USUAL FOR A HURRICANE THAT WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C
WATERS DUE TO THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. BY 72 HOURS...EMILIA WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-23C
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THOSE COOLER WATERS...IN COMBINATION
WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR...SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE
TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS
AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0900Z 15.2N 120.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 15.5N 121.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 15.9N 124.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 16.3N 126.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  14/0600Z 16.6N 129.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  15/0600Z 17.1N 134.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  16/0600Z 17.5N 139.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  17/0600Z 17.5N 144.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART