000
WTPZ45 KNHC 120239
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
800 PM PDT WED JUL 11 2012
 
EMILIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE 25-30 N MI
EYE REMAINS QUITE DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGES. THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN SYMMETRIC UNTIL THE LAST HOUR OR TWO WHERE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE EASTERN EYEWALL. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FIXES...THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
HELD AT 100 KT. THE OUTFLOW OF THE MAJOR HURRICANE IS WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT IS RESTRICTED TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO ABOUT 15 KT OF EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...BUT EMILIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SUB 26C WATERS AND
INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE BY THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
IS UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING A SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING TREND...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT THEME.
 
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 8 KT ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTH
OF EMILIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD AND GAIN SOME FORWARD SPEED. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0300Z 15.0N 119.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 15.3N 120.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 15.7N 122.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 16.1N 125.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 16.5N 127.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  15/0000Z 17.0N 132.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  16/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  17/0000Z 17.5N 143.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI