000
WTPZ45 KNHC 111435
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
800 AM PDT WED JUL 11 2012
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IT
CONSISTS OF AN EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND
NO BANDING FEATURES.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT ANNULAR
STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE...EMILIA WILL PROBABLY NOT CHANGE MUCH IN
INTENSITY TODAY...BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THE HURRICANE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE CIRCULATION STARTS TO INTERACT WITH COOLER
WATERS IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO.
 
THE TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED EITHER...AND EMILIA CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE
IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST BY
GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST. THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP
EMILIA MOVING ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK UNTIL THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO IMPORTANT CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. BECAUSE
THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WELL ESTABLISHED...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE A WEAKENING
CYCLONE PROGRESSING WESTNORTHWESTARD AND WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND NOT TOO FAR FROM
THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/1500Z 14.6N 117.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 15.1N 118.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 15.5N 120.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 16.0N 122.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  13/1200Z 16.5N 125.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  14/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  15/1200Z 17.5N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  16/1200Z 17.5N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA