000
WTPZ45 KNHC 110848
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
200 AM PDT WED JUL 11 2012
 
EMILIA IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE WAKE LEFT BEHIND BY DANIEL THREE
DAYS AGO WHEN THAT CYCLONE WAS A 70-KT HURRICANE. HOWEVER...DANIEL
LIKELY DID NOT CREATE ANY COLD UPWELLING BECAUSE EMILIA HAS
RECENTLY MADE A CONVECTIVE RESURGENCE WITH A RING OF CLOUD TOPS
COLDER THAN -70C HAVING DEVELOPED AROUND AN EYE FEATURE THAT HAS
BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0/90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RECENT
ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.1/92 KT...AND THE IMPROVED EYE
FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09 KT. EMILIA REMAINS ON TRACK
AND THE FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT SKIRTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE WEST IS EXPECTED BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
BUILDS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO THE ECMWF
MODEL AND THE TVCE CONSENSUS MODEL TRACKS.
 
ANY INTENSITY GAINS MADE BY EMILIA THIS MORNING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER...INTO A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE NEGATIVE EFFECTS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY
WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO RELAX SOMEWHAT AFTER 48 HOURS...EMILIA WILL BE IN
UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS...WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT THE CYCLONE FROM RE-STRENGTHENING. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0900Z 14.6N 116.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 14.9N 118.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 15.4N 119.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 15.8N 121.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  13/0600Z 16.3N 124.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  14/0600Z 17.2N 128.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  15/0600Z 17.8N 133.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  16/0600Z 18.3N 138.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART