000 WTPZ45 KNHC 110238 TCDEP5 HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012 THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND CLOUD-FILLED IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST MICROWAVE DATA REVEALED THAT THE EYEWALL HAS WEAKENED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN TO 5.0 OR 90 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES ARE NEAR 100 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 95 KT. THE LIKELY CAUSE OF THE WEAKENING IS MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AFTER 36 HOURS...EMILIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 26C BY THEN AND TRACK INTO A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR MASS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. EMILIA HAS JOGGED TO THE NORTH OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...A LONGER TERM MOTION IS 290/10. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. A TURN TO THE WEST IS PREDICTED BEYOND A FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF EMILIA. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 14.4N 115.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 14.7N 117.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 15.1N 118.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 15.6N 120.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 16.0N 122.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 17.0N 126.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 17.7N 132.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 18.0N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI