000 WTPZ45 KNHC 102033 TCDEP5 HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012 INNER CORE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE RAGGED-LOOKING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. USING A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES YIELDS A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 110 KT. EMILIA CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND IMPEDED OUTFLOW TO THE EAST...AS MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE HURRICANE. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE TRAVERSING PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS BY 24-36 HOURS FROM NOW. SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE NHC INTENSITY PREDICTION IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST SHOWS A MUCH FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING THEN SHOWN HERE. THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED A BIT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/8. THERE ARE NO REASONS TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST. A PRONOUNCED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 30N LATITUDE SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF EMILIA...AND THIS WOULD RESULT IN A WESTWARD TURN AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF PREDICTION. THE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED INWARD BASED ON A 1744 UTC ASCAT PASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 13.9N 114.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 14.3N 115.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 14.8N 117.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 15.3N 119.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 15.7N 121.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 16.8N 125.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 17.5N 130.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 18.0N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH